China’s Stimulus Implications By Paulo Macro
Sometimes we write our own stuff. Sometimes, we like to point to people in the market who we think ought to be listened to. Not about ego, it’s about filtering for people who produce good solid analysis. That’s Paulo, and we suggest people subscribe to his substack. Today, Paulo constructs an initial take on […]
ECRI on Growth, Employment and Inflation Cycles
When Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycles Research Institute (ECRI) speaks, we listen. In one of his latest podcasts (link), Lakshman outlines the thinking and collective wisdom of ECRI’s suite of leading indicators that sketch an assessment of the global economy – and in particular the United States as the leading engine. Our summary does […]
Energy Prices. What happens when the election spigot closes?
Presidents don’t win elections with people angry at the pumps, so it has not been deeply surprising to find a confluence of events which have worked to ensure that energy prices remain affordable to the electorate. SPR releases, record shale production and the largely unabated flow of Russian energy (despite all policy language to the […]
US Elections: Will Trump cause a ‘Truss’ moment for the market?
Deficits don’t matter, until they do. One person who understood that particularly well was the famous US political commentator James Carville who once quipped that in a second life he would love to come back as the bond market. Such is the power of the most liquid securities market in the world for US government […]